Analyst Eric Trager has published a useful analysis of the current state of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood titled “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Thinks It’s Winning the War for the Future.” The article begins:
Since the uprising-cum-coup that ousted Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi last summer, Washington has encouraged the Muslim Brotherhood and the military-backed government to pursue ‘reconciliation.’ Nearly a year later, however, neither side appears interested in conceding anything to the other. The military fears that a remobilized Brotherhood would quickly win power and seek vengeance. And despite an unrelenting crackdown that has claimed over 2,500 lives and jailed over 16,000 Egyptians, the Brotherhood’s demands haven’t softened: Morsi must return, at least temporarily, and those who removed him—particularly General Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, who is widely expected to win the presidential election next week—must be executed. Until then, Muslim Brothers vow to continue resisting the coup, because—they insist—they are winning. In other words, forget ‘reconciliation’: The existential struggle that has defined Egyptian politics since Morsi’s removal will likely continue, and worsen.
To be sure, there has been ongoing communication—sometimes direct, but mostly indirect—between the military-backed government and the Brotherhood since July. But the two sides’ demands remain mutually exclusive.
Read the rest here.